Red White & Blind

I’m delighted to announce that the audiobook of Red White & Blind is complete. Putting it together has been a long labor of love, and now it will launch in a matter of weeks—no later than the first week of September. If you prefer listening to books with your ears over reading them with your eyes, you will now get to enjoy this book in your desired format.

When I first considered how to create the audiobook, I reviewed the manuscript and realized that many segments would be best delivered in my own voice. So I set out to read the entire thing, from start to finish, forgetting for a moment how huge an effort it is to record an audiobook. And this book is longer and more complex than the narrative nonfiction of my first book, Double Happiness, so it took a bit more to get it over the finish line. The project even grew a bit as I went. I realized it needed audio breaks to indicate section breaks and new chapters, so I sat down and recorded some guitar riffs and interspersed them into the audio flow. I also employed a female voice to read the primary sources authored by women, and that female voice belongs to a human very important to me: my amazing wife Pamela.

So this audiobook turned into something approaching a radio play.

And now it’s done. I think you’ll enjoy the final product quite a bit if I do say so myself. It will be released and ready for your enjoyment in just a few weeks.

More From This Newsletter

In other news—and there’s a lot of it these days with all that’s going on in the world—I believe I can help people see the world more clearly if I engage more fully with this newsletter. I will be adding more features here and on the video channel, and I hope you’ll let me know what you find valuable and useful.

Will Assange know justice? Will Super Tuesday end the primary season?

A full, new episode of the Red White & Blind show is out. Sit back and enjoy the full episode, or choose the individual segment that interests you most.

To me, they’re all important, but the most pressing is the case of Julian Assange. A verdict in England will be handed down any day now on his extradition. For the sake of international law and press freedom, he must be set free today or he will languish and die very soon in an American prison—and this thing we call investigative journalism will become all but illegal.

FULL EPISODE

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INDIVIDUAL SEGMENTS

When looking at the 2020 candidates for the Democratic nomination, you might already know whom you want to support, based on your ideals. If not, I created a “potentially sane” guide for progressives that meticulously compares the candidates on issues, records, promises, and ethics.

But putting aside our ideals for a minute, which candidate is best positioned to actually win a general election against Donald Trump?

To answer this important question, I researched the general elections we’ve had so far in this century. Based on my findings, I assess each candidate below with a percentage chance of beating Trump in November.

If you’re in a hurry, you can skip the research and explanation of my criteria, and go straight to the assessments of the candidates.

HOW TO DETERMINE ELECTABILITY IN 2020

If you’ve paid a nonzero amount of attention to presidential races, you know there’s this thing called the Electoral College that ensures only a handful of “swing states” determine the winner. In essence, states rather than people vote, and since we already know today how 44 or so of the 50 states will vote based on a preponderance of voters of one or the other party, we really only have to look closely at a half-dozen or so “swing states” to know who will win the whole race.

As far as swing states go in 2020, based on current demographic trends, it’s Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Minnesota that will be the most momentous of these “undecided” states. What’s going on in these states? Well, the crux of it is this: roughly one-third of the voters in swing states are registered Democrats; one-third are registered Republicans; and the other third are independents who often don’t vote. Let me say that again, a third of voters in swing states are independents, and they often don’t vote. Basically, any candidate will get their party’s faithful third of the electorate. The question is: Who gets more independents off the couch to vote? That’s who wins.

The Electoral College isn’t quite the whole story, though. Voters outside of swing states do matter in presidential races. Several important things carry across state lines: Money, Movements, and Enthusiasm. To wit, just because in 2008 I lived in California, a “blue” state that was surely going for Obama, didn’t mean that I had no impact on that race. I donated money to the campaign, I wrote to friends and family about the movement to elect Obama, and I cared enough to travel to Nevada to knock on doors and convince voters to support Obama.

So if you combine an awareness of the Electoral College, research into independent voter statistics, and an assessment of each candidate’s ability to generate money, enthusiasm, and a political movement, you get a pretty good pragmatist’s sense of how strong a candidate will be in a presidential election.

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They’re between a rock and a hard place of their own making

While Trump is thoroughly disliked by about forty percent of the country, the Democrats, as led by centrists Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY), have not only done very little to build their own popularity, they’ve actually been pursuing strategies that erode their popularity.

Ever since their disastrous 2016 loss, the Democratic leadership has spent most of its energy pursuing conspiracy theories — first about Russia, and now about Ukraine. We’ll get to the specifics of each of these theories, but suffice it to say that both are unpopular, both are unproven, and both will, on balance, help Trump and Republicans in the 2020 elections.

Worse still, the Democrats are now impeaching Trump over one of them, the Ukraine dispute. Even if the charges in this conspiracy theory are true — and they haven’t been proven — here’s the thing: no one cares.

Everyday independent voters — the people who will decide the 2020 elections — don’t care about Ukraine. What they do care about are things that affect their everyday lives: healthcare, the economy, personal debt, the environment, equal rights, immigration, and income inequality.

So why are Democrats pursuing these conspiracy theories? Why are they taking the giant step to impeach? They know Trump will be acquitted in the Senate, as Bill Clinton was in 1999, and that this drive to impeach will result in nothing but a long-running, extensively-watched, widely-discussed movie that in the end will feature Donald Trump winning. This in turn will create a stronger, vindicated candidate in November who can decry a witch hunt (with some validity), ignore attacks on his real flaws and real corruption, and pretend to have integrity in ways he currently cannot.

The question is, why would the Democrats want to lose again?

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Democracy is not an exact science. There are countless things one might wish to say with a vote, but a single vote for one candidate or another communicates with little precision. In 2016, this wild presidential election, given everything we’ve seen from leaks to gropes to voting purges to visiting Popes, examining what the candidates have done and what they verbally stand for is about all we can do in determining what our one vote will say.

To many voters, given the chicanery and the poor choices, the election is an illegitimate exercise at this point. More on that in a minute.

For now, since by all accounts the election will go forward on Tuesday, let’s consider what a vote for each candidate says to the ruling establishment and our representatives. Since there isn’t a perfect candidate for most of us, our vote says in essence what we’re OK with, what we can tolerate:

• A vote for Donald Trump says: I’m OK with racism, homophobia, and religious scapegoating, with bullying, sexism, and mocking the political system, with global corporate rule, and ignoring climate change, and with voting for a candidate who doesn’t have elective political experience, so long as the candidate has a strong chance of winning, isn’t Hillary Clinton, and is from the nominally conservative major party.

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